由 ZEN Full-year shipments for 2025 are forecast at 5.834 million units, a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 15.4%, falling below the 6 million unit mark.
Following rapid growth from 2021-2022, the market has experienced three consecutive years of correction: Peak of 7.64 million in 2022 -> 6.893 million in 2024 -> 5.834 million in 2025.
Reasons for Decline
- External Environment: Economic downturn leading to contracted individual and corporate spending.
- Competitive Pressure: Lower large-screen TV prices diverting household demand; interactive flat panels and LED displays squeezing the commercial market.
- Internal Industry Factors: Slowed technological iteration, severe product homogeneity, inflated specifications, and reputation issues.
Home Market
Forecast full-year shipments for the home market in 2025 are 5.219 million units, down 16.1% YoY, accounting for 90% of the total market.
Three-Tier Market Structure:
- Light Entertainment: Targeting small spaces, ambiance (lamp designs, aromatherapy integration), and lower brightness. Representative brands: OBIE, Xiaoming, Epson.
- Living Room: Targeting approximately 100-inch image size, high picture quality (4K, high color reproduction), and brightness >4000 CVIA lumens. Representative brands: XGIMI, Vidda.
- Home Cinema/AV Room: Targeting over 120-inch size, cinema-grade picture quality, with a very broad price range. Representative brands: Sony, JVC.
Commercial/Engineering Market
Forecast full-year shipments for the commercial and engineering market in 2025 are 615,000 units, down 8.3% YoY.
Traditional sectors are under pressure: Education (fewer schools, fiscal tightening), Government/Enterprise (budget cuts), and Engineering (slowdown in cultural tourism, LED competition). Representative brands: Appotronics, Christie.
An emerging niche market for Sports Simulation (indoor golf, tennis, etc.) is expected in the second half of 2025. This requires wide formats, low latency, and high refresh rates. Representative brands: BenQ, Optoma. Additionally, opportunities exist in the Lightweight B-End sector, including small corporate showrooms and mini immersive retail spaces.
In-Vehicle Projection
A strategic emerging market covering Entertainment, Windows, HUDs, and Digital Headlights, with uncertain future prospects. Challenges include high technical adaptation difficulty (vibration, heat dissipation), strict automotive-grade certification, and unpredictable sales for designated projects.
Market by Imaging Technology
- 1LCD: Forecast shipments of 3.715 million units, down 12.7% YoY, but market share rises to 63.7%.
- DLP: Market share drops to 31.6%. Upstream supplier TI adjusted its strategy to probe the lower market with low-cost chips while accelerating its 4K chip layout.
- 3LCD: Market share dips slightly to 4.7%. Epson introduced its “Three-Chip, Three-Color Full-Color Engine” to accelerate 4K new product launches.
- Domestic Development: Focus is on BOE and CSOT launching new FHD and 4K specification panels; KJM’s 2LCD (brightness >1000 lumens), HiSilicon’s LCoS (high resolution/contrast), and Digital Optics (4K Micro LED).
Market by Light Source
Shipments of LED, laser, and lamp-based products all declined.
Laser display experienced the smallest decline, with its market share rising to 17.5%.
- Home Laser: Shipments of 813,000 units (accounting for 80% of total laser volume). Entry-level products under 3000 RMB exceed 25% share; medium-to-long throw ratio accounts for 80%; three-color laser penetration rate reaches 75%.
- Engineering Laser: Shipments of 108,000 units, a slight decline. The share of 10,000+ lumens and 4K products increased.
- Business/Education Laser: Shipments of 102,000 units, down 16.4%. University smart classrooms and vocational training are opening up the market; the implementation of the 2026 mercury ban is expected to bring new impact.