由 Zhao Zheng 1
From 2020 to 2025, the global laser projection market’s shipments experienced a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.4%, with an estimated volume of 2.379 million units in 2025. The Chinese market accounted for 47.8% of the global share.
Chinese brands have accelerated their international expansion. In the first half of 2025, Hisense and Appotronics (光峰) contributed 52.8% of global shipments. Concurrently, Chinese associations and enterprises led the formulation of 21 industry standards.
Home Projection Segment Highlights (H1 2025):
- Shipments of 100-inch+ laser TVs in China increased by 177% year-on-year, with product coverage ranging from 75 to 150 inches.
- Home laser projector brightness surpassed 5,000 lumens, and 4K resolution penetration reached 69.3%.
- The home laser pico projector market showed a five-year CAGR of 119%.
- Optical zoom penetration was 34.1%, and the application of large AI models accounted for 11.7% of the market.
2.
Nine Chinese government departments, including the Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the Several Policy Measures on Expanding Service Consumption, proposing 19 specific tasks across five areas:
Cultivating Service Consumption Platforms: Implementing actions to improve service quality and benefit the public, launching a “Service Consumption Season,” and creating service consumption focal points. This includes developing new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and promoting the integrated development of commerce, travel, culture, sports, and health.
Enriching High-Quality Service Supply: Enhancing the provision of cultural, entertainment, sports, domestic, elderly care, and childcare services, and expanding high-level opening-up in the service sector.
Stimulating New Service Consumption Growth: Attracting more inbound international visitors for consumption and expanding digital service consumption.
Strengthening Fiscal and Financial Support: Utilizing various funding channels, including central budget investments and local government special bonds, to support service facility construction. This also involves increasing credit support for service consumption and offering interest subsidies for service sector businesses to revitalize the market.
Improving Statistical and Monitoring Systems: Optimizing service consumption statistical methods and innovating service consumption monitoring and analysis.
3
The “Lingnan Fantasy City” digital cultural tourism resort, with a total investment of 3 billion yuan, was officially established in Xiqiao, Nanhai. As the largest cultural tourism project in the core area surrounding the two rivers in nearly a decade, it draws inspiration from the local IP concepts of the “Pearl River Civilization Lighthouse” and the “Birthplace of Lingnan Culture.” The first phase, with an investment of 1.18 billion yuan, will create a comprehensive digital immersive experience complex, also encompassing water parks and live-action performances. The project is expected to drive development in areas such as landscape lighting, intelligent control, and cultural tourism light shows.
4
China’s lighting industry is addressing irregularities in bidding. Since the beginning of 2024, 38,000 illegally operating bidding experts have been removed nationwide, implementing a “zero-tolerance” policy for confirmed violations in local expert pools. The industry is currently piloting a “dual-blind review + remote cross-regional bidding” mechanism. In the first half of 2025, foreign enterprise participation in multi-million dollar lighting projects in Guangdong and Sichuan significantly increased, and the share of private enterprises rose to over 60%, an increase of 10% from the start of the rectification in 2024.
5
In the first half of 2025, China’s total volume of service import and export reached 3.9 trillion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase. Service exports totaled 1.7 trillion yuan, growing by 15%. The share of service exports in total foreign trade exports reached 11.5%, a 0.7 percentage point increase from the same period last year.
6
The Shanghai International Light Festival will take place from September 19 to October 18, under the theme “Light Up Shanghai.” It will feature one main venue and 16 sub-venues, hosting 177 thematic activities. The West Bund Dome Art Center will debut an ultra-large 3,000-square-meter glasses-free 3D dome projection show, while the West Bund Grand Theater will showcase an architectural projection show. The riverside promenade will exhibit 218 works by light artists from 19 countries.
7
As of the end of 2024, China had 548 science and technology museums meeting the Construction Standards for Science and Technology Museums, raising coverage in prefecture-level administrative regions to 77%. The regional distribution has become more balanced, with 171, 166, and 211 museums in the eastern, central, and western regions, respectively. Since 2021, 203 new museums have been added, with 158 of them being county-level museums, establishing them as the main force in new construction. In 2024, physical science and technology museums served over 100 million public visits for the first time. From 2021 to 2024, mobile science museums and popular science caravans collectively served over 160 million people at the grassroots level.
8
In the first half of 2025, hardware sales in China’s educational robotics market reached 1.07 billion yuan, a 12.5% year-on-year increase. By 2029, the market’s hardware sales are projected to reach 3.93 billion yuan, representing a five-year CAGR of 12.9%. Educational robots are categorized into three main types: programming robots, bionic robots, and interactive robots.
The programming robot market is developing steadily, supported by the growth of the AI industry and the educational focus on basic computer literacy. This segment has formed a complete educational ecosystem based on curriculum and competitions. Demand is becoming increasingly differentiated due to educational stratification and personalized learning needs, covering areas like early childhood education, K-12 programming enlightenment, language learning, and board games. Educational robot manufacturers are increasingly focused on providing integrated solutions that include “Robot + Curriculum/Content + Competition/Service.”
9
The Chinese home appliance industry is facing challenges due to the fading of three major historical advantages: consumer confidence, favorable demographics, and real estate growth.
Consumer Side: The Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 126.6 in December 2019 to 87.9 in June 2025, indicating widespread consumer caution. The natural population growth rate has been negative for three consecutive years since 2022, reaching -0.99‰ in 2024, leading to a sustained contraction in demand.
Real Estate Impact: The weakening real estate market intensified pressure, with the number of new housing starts nationwide falling from 11.8462 million units in 2020 to 2.3254 million units in 2024, a reduction of 9.52 million units, directly weakening incremental demand for home appliances.
Industry Cycle Shift: The industry cycle has transitioned from growth to saturation, entering a limited/inventory-focused phase. Data shows the industry’s CAGR was 7.6% (2004–2012) and 6.5% (2012–2019), but turned negative at -0.9% (2019–2023).
Subsidy Policy Effect Fading: The impact of national subsidy policies is diminishing. Full-year retail sales for home appliances in 2025 are projected to increase by 2.4%, but Q4 is expected to decrease by 8.6%. The 2024–2025 period may have pre-spent 150 billion yuan of future market demand, suggesting a likely continued industry downturn from 2026 to 2028.
Product Performance: Traditional pillar categories are under pressure: color TV sales reached 127.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 35.9 billion yuan drop from the peak. Refrigerator sales are expected to see a year-on-year decline of -5.3% for the first time in 2025. While emerging categories like dryers and dishwashers are increasing their market share (reaching 12.2% in 2024), they have not yet fully compensated for the decline in growth from the pillar categories.
Channel Transformation: The channel landscape is undergoing significant change, with the influence of shelf e-commerce declining and emerging channels like content e-commerce and OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) rising.
Subsidy Limitations and Consumer Debt: The effect of national subsidies has markedly decreased; after Guangdong and Hubei introduced quota limits on subsidy vouchers, retail sales between June 30 and August 10 fell by 20.1% and 18.8% year-on-year, respectively. Sales in regions that suspended subsidies, such as Xinjiang and Liaoning, also declined. The 80s and 90s generations (aged 25-44), who make up 28.2% of the population, carry high debt, while the 00s generation has low assets, limiting consumption power. Online user penetration has peaked, making offline customer acquisition difficult, and information overload leads to fragmented user attention. Consequently, “promotion without conversion” is becoming common, and initiatives like in-store live streaming and digital transformation are struggling.