由 Zhao Zheng Market Scale and Macro Environment
- Market Volume: 1.124 million units, marking a sharp YoY decline of 11.5%.
The overall market situation is severe. The fundamental reason lies in the smart projector’s non-essential nature, coupled with consumer caution towards discretionary spending amidst a sluggish macro environment.
- Market Value: RMB 1.69 billion, a YoY decline of 10.6%.
The value drop is slightly less than the volume drop, indicating that product premiumization and performance upgrades partially offset the sales decline.
- Full-Year Forecast: The 2025 full-year sales forecast has been revised down to 5.6 million units, a YoY decrease of 7.4%.
Market demand remains weak, leading to a pessimistic outlook. Over-reliance on external policies and promotional models is unsustainable.
- “Double 11” Forecast: Sales volume (online mainstream channels) is projected to decline by 15%, with value dropping by approximately 10%.
The marginal effect of the national subsidy policy is diminishing, while normalized promotions lead to consumer fatigue, making it difficult to reverse the market downturn.
Product Structure Upgrade: The Premiumization Breakthrough
- Above RMB 10,000 Market: Sales volume saw a sharp YoY increase of 33%.
Leading domestic brands (XGIMI, JmGO, Dangbei, Vidda) are accelerating their premiumization strategy centered on “technology elevation” and “experience upgrades,” making the ultra-premium segment a bright spot. Sales share rose from 0.6% in Q3 2024 to 0.9%.
- RMB 5,000+ Price Segment: Market share reached 5.0%, a YoY increase of 0.5 percentage points.
The overall premiumization trend is evident.
- Mid-to-Low End Upgrades:
The RMB 500-999 segment surpassed the sub-RMB 500 segment to become the highest-share price band, with sales increasing 4% YoY.
The RMB 2,000-2,999 segment saw a 5% sales increase, mainly driven by cost-effective models from leading brands.
The RMB 4,000-4,999 segment saw a 7% sales increase, driven by the launch of new products.
Technology Routes and Performance Metrics Enhancement
- Technology Landscape: DLP’s Counter-Trend Rise
DLP Technology: Online sales share was 27.3%, a YoY increase of 5.0 percentage points.
DLP products rose against the trend. The market reshuffle, with smaller brands exiting, concentrated resources among mainstream brands (TOP4 combined share exceeding 94%), thus optimizing the product structure.
Laser product sales share rose 3.4 percentage points compared to Q3 2024, with tri-color laser’s share exceeding 40%.
- 1LCD Technology: Online sales share was 71.7%, a YoY decrease of 4.6 percentage points.
While share declined significantly, the average price rose by RMB 32, reflecting an internal structural upgrade toward 4.45-inch panels.
Performance Enhancement: Accelerated Penetration of High Definition and High Brightness
- High Brightness: The market share for brightness above 3,000 lumens was 2.3%, a YoY increase of 1.7 percentage points.
High brightness is a key industry trend. In the DLP market, the share above 3,000 lumens surged from 2.6% to 8.5%.
- Resolution:
FHD (1080P) remains dominant, with a 56.9% share, a significant YoY increase of 9.1 percentage points.
4K UHD share reached 9.6%, a YoY increase of 2.5 percentage points. Entry-level 4K products are now priced within the RMB 3,000-3,500 range.
Optical Technology: Variable zoom product sales share reached 6.0%, a YoY increase of 2.5 percentage points; value share reached 23.4%, a sharp YoY increase of 16.3 percentage points.
The accelerated adoption of technologies like optical zoom and shift significantly improves image quality and ease of use, making them a major selling point for mid-to-high-end new products.
Focus and Outlook
- New Energy Efficiency National Standard: The new standard (GB32028-2025) was released on June 30, 2025, and will be formally implemented on July 1, 2026.
The new standard covers all mainstream light sources and will accelerate the industry’s green transition. In Q3, the share of Grade I and Grade II energy-efficient products increased to 13.8% and 13.4%, respectively. However, about 70% of products remain unmarked, leaving manufacturers only 8 months for adaptation.
- New Product Launches: Ahead of “Double 11,” 13 mainstream brands released 34 new products, significantly higher than the same period last year and “618.”
The promotion period remains a key window for new launches. Leading brands are fiercely competing in premiumization (more products above RMB 10,000) and picture quality upgrades (4K/high brightness), though product homogenization is becoming increasingly prominent.
- Future Growth: The Ministry of Finance has clarified that the national subsidy will end on December 31, 2025.
The industry must decisively shift to intrinsic growth drivers, focusing on technology innovation, scenario expansion, and user experience optimization to restore market vitality.